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Both "old" and "new" cardinality estimators produce an incorrect estimate for an apply semi join with predicates pushed below a union all on the inner side. The incorrect estimate is a fixed 100% of the input cardinality for the 120 model CE, and 90% for the 70 model. Full details at http://sqlperformance.com/2014/07/sql-plan/subquery-cardinality-estimation-bug